Best Bets for Thursday, July 23, 2026
Thursday has two sports worth your attention: a sharp five-game MLB afternoon/evening slate and Round 1 of the 3M Open on the PGA Tour at TPC Twin Cities. No UFC, no MLS, no NFL or college football. Here’s where the value lives on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
The Games: Thursday, July 23, 2026
- San Diego Padres (50-51) @ Atlanta Braves (58-42) — 12:15 PM ET | Truist Park
- Minnesota Twins (49-53) @ Cleveland Guardians (54-48) — 1:10 PM ET | Progressive Field
- Tampa Bay Rays (58-42) @ Toronto Blue Jays — 3:07 PM ET | Rogers Centre
- Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — 5:15 PM ET | Busch Stadium
- Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers — 6:40 PM ET | Comerica Park
- 3M Open — Round 1 | TPC Twin Cities, Blaine MN | $8.8M Purse
Game Breakdowns
San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves — 12:15 PM ET
Pitching: Chris Sale (10-6, 2.06 ERA) vs. Michael King (Padres)
Chris Sale is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. At 2.06 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts and just 2.1 walks per nine innings, he’s been virtually unhittable. The Braves (58-42) also back him with the NL’s top bullpen (3.14 ERA) — once Sale hands it over, the Padres aren’t getting it back.
The Padres (50-51) are a sub-.500 team on the road facing a legitimate ace. Michael King is a capable starter, but this is a severe talent mismatch on the mound.
Odds: Braves -232 | Padres +187
Risk Factor: The -232 price is brutal for a single-game bet. Best played as a half-unit or rolled into a parlay.
The Angle: Braves First 5 Innings Winner is the smarter line than laying -232 on the full game. Look for F5 odds around -145 to -155 — same Sale dominance, fraction of the juice.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians — 1:10 PM ET
Pitching: Taj Bradley (Twins) vs. Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA — Guardians)
Gavin Williams at home is a different animal. The Guardians (54-48) have been one of the more consistent home teams in the AL Central, and the Twins (49-53) are one of the weakest road teams on today’s slate. Minnesota sits four games under .500 and has struggled to generate offense against quality pitching.
Odds: Guardians -131 | Twins +109
Risk Factor: Williams carries a 4.00 ERA — not untouchable.
The Angle: Guardians ML -131 is the cleanest play on the board. Home team, winning record, solid starter, struggling road opponent. Textbook situational betting.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays — 3:07 PM ET
Pitching: Ian Seymour (Rays) vs. Braydon Fisher (3-3, 3.65 ERA — Blue Jays, bullpen game, max ~1.2 innings)
Toronto is treating this as a bullpen game — Fisher won’t go past ~1.2 innings, meaning the Blue Jays will burn through relievers early. That’s a structural disadvantage when facing a Tampa Bay lineup that grinds counts and works pitchers deep into at-bats.
The Rays are 58-42 — one of the better teams in baseball — getting near pick’em odds on the road. That’s a market inefficiency worth exploiting.
Odds: Rays -107 | Blue Jays -112
The Angle: Rays ML -107. You’re getting a 58-win team at juice-only pricing. Take the better team at near pick’em.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ St. Louis Cardinals — 5:15 PM ET
Pitching: Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) vs. Michael McGreevy (Cardinals)
McGreevy has been exceptional at home — 2.35 ERA across seven home starts in 2026. The Cardinals’ offense also ranks fourth in OPS vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Pfaadt walks into a tough matchup: hot home pitcher, hot home lineup vs. righties.
Odds: Cardinals approx. -130 (home favorites)
The Angle: Cardinals at home with McGreevy’s elite home splits is a strong lean. Half-unit parlay add alongside the Guardians.
⛳ 3M Open — PGA Tour | Round 1 | TPC Twin Cities, Blaine MN
Purse: $8.8 million | Round 1 tee times: Thursday, July 23
The week after The Open Championship is historically one of the best spots to fade favorites on the PGA Tour. Most of golf’s top names skip the 3M Open to recover from the travel grind of a British major, leaving a more balanced field with real longshot value. TPC Twin Cities rewards driving accuracy over raw distance — a key filter when building your card.
The Field:
- Scottie Scheffler +275 — heavy favorite, but thin field historically compresses his edge
- Kurt Kitayama +2500 — defending champion, knows this course cold
- Hideki Matsuyama +2800 — T14 at The Open last week, accurate driver, course-fit is strong
- Gordon Sargent +20000 — co-runner-up last week at Corales; momentum is real, price is huge
- Davis Thompson / Lucas Glover — longshots with course-fit upside
Risk Factors: Scheffler remains dominant in weaker fields. Outright golf bets are high variance by nature — treat as half-unit plays.
The Angles:
- Matsuyama Top 10 (~+900–+1000 for T10): Best value in the middle of the board. Strong recent form, accurate driver, course suits his shape.
- Gordon Sargent Top 20 (~+400–+500): Momentum from Corales is real. +20000 to win is too rich, but a top-20 bet is reasonable sizing for a name nobody’s talking about.
- Fade Scheffler outright: In a thin field where one bad round ends contention, prefer spreading units across two mid-tier names rather than laying short juice on chalk.
Confidence Rating: 6/10
⭐ Best Bets — Final Card
| Pick | Bet | Odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Cleveland Guardians | Moneyline | -131 | 1u | 7/10 |
| 🥈 Tampa Bay Rays | Moneyline | -107 | 1u | 6/10 |
| 🥉 Atlanta Braves F5 | First 5 Innings | ~-150 | 0.5u | 7/10 |
| 💡 Parlay Add | Cardinals ML + Guardians ML | ~+125 | 0.5u | 6/10 |
| ⛳ Matsuyama Top 10 | Top 10 Finish (3M Open) | ~+900 | 0.5u | 6/10 |
| ⛳ Sargent Top 20 | Top 20 Finish (3M Open) | ~+450 | 0.5u | 6/10 |
Best of the day: Guardians ML -131. Cleanest play on the slate — home team, winning record, solid starter, sub-.500 road opponent.
Value play: Rays ML -107. Best team on the board at the lowest vig. Take the better team near pick’em when Toronto goes bullpen-heavy.
Golf play of the day: Matsuyama Top 10. Coming off a strong Open Championship, driving accuracy suits TPC Twin Cities, and +900 is a fair price for a former major champion with course-fit upside.
Fade: Braves ML -232. Take the F5 at a fraction of the cost.
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Odds sourced from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, VegasInsider, and OddsShark as of late July 22, 2026. Lines move — confirm before betting. Gambling involves risk; bet responsibly.
