Best Bets for July 13, 2026

Introduction

With MLB regular season games on pause for the All-Star Break, tonight's spotlight shifts to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Home Run Derby takes over primetime on Netflix. Eight of baseball's biggest power hitters compete for bragging rights in a revamped format — and with serious money on the line in the prop markets. Meanwhile, the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas delivers three competitive matchups, and sharp bettors are already getting ahead of tomorrow's 2026 World Cup semifinal between France and Spain. Here are today's five best bets.

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Game Breakdowns

MLB Home Run Derby — Tonight, 8 PM ET | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia | Netflix

Eight sluggers compete under a new swing-based format: 20 swings in Round 1, 15 in semis and finals, with bonus swings awarded for consecutive home runs. No timed rounds — just raw power.

Participants: Kyle Schwarber (32 HR, MLB leader), Junior Caminero (TB Rays), Munetaka Murakami, Bryce Harper, and four others competing at Schwarber and Harper's home park.

Key angle: Schwarber is the +310 favorite playing at home, and the crowd will be electric. But Junior Caminero at +425 is the value — he's the only returning Derby participant, ranks in the 100th percentile for bat speed (79.9 mph avg) and 95th percentile in exit velocity. The metrics and price point make Caminero the smarter bet.

NBA Summer League — Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics | Las Vegas

Both teams enter 2-0 in Las Vegas. The Hawks are listed as favorites, but the Celtics at +156 carry significant value given their undefeated record and strong depth. Summer League results are noisy, but two undefeated teams this deep into the week is meaningful signal.

NBA Summer League — Chicago Bulls vs. Utah Jazz | Las Vegas

Rookie Caleb Wilson put up 35 points in his Summer League debut for Chicago. Utah is 0-2 and has struggled with talent and execution. Wilson gives Chicago a clear best-player-on-the-floor edge here.

World Cup Semifinal Preview — France vs. Spain | Tomorrow July 14, 3 PM ET | AT&T Stadium, Dallas

The best time to lock in France is today before the line moves tighter at kickoff. France are +130 ML, Draw +220, Spain +220. France have not conceded a single goal in three straight knockout matches. Kylian Mbappe leads the tournament with 8 goals (1 every 65 min) and has scored twice against Spain in professional play. France are -140 to advance to the final.

Spain are dangerous in transition and boast tournament experience, but France's defensive structure at this stage of the competition is historically elite. The previous meeting in June 2025 was a 5-4 thriller — but that was a Nations League context, not a World Cup knockout with France's full defensive discipline deployed.

Best Bets

Bet 1: Junior Caminero to Win MLB Home Run Derby (+425 | DraftKings)

Reasoning: Best metrics in the field — 100th percentile bat speed (79.9 mph), 95th percentile exit velocity. Only returning participant from 2025. The +425 price significantly undervalues his ceiling relative to Schwarber at +310.

Risk: Citizens Bank Park home advantage for Schwarber and Harper. Derby outcomes are high-variance by nature.

Confidence: 6/10

Bet 2: Kyle Schwarber to Win MLB Home Run Derby (+310 | DraftKings)

Reasoning: MLB home run leader (32 HR), playing at home (Citizens Bank Park), crowd energy. Proven power in this format.

Risk: Caminero and Murakami are legitimate threats; home park has not historically guaranteed Derby wins.

Confidence: 6/10

Bet 3: Atlanta Hawks ML — NBA Summer League (DraftKings/BetMGM)

Reasoning: Both teams are 2-0 but Hawks have stronger depth at this stage. If Celtics are +156, there is genuine value against an equally matched squad.

Risk: Summer League is high-variance and small sample. Either team could have roster changes on short notice.

Confidence: 5/10

Bet 4: Chicago Bulls ML — NBA Summer League (DraftKings)

Reasoning: Caleb Wilson (35 pts debut) is the best player on the court. Jazz are 0-2 with nothing going right. Chicago should have clear talent edge.

Risk: Jazz could use desperation as motivation; Summer League sample size is tiny.

Confidence: 6/10

Bet 5: France to Advance to World Cup Final (-140 | DraftKings) — Bet Today

Reasoning: Zero goals conceded in three straight knockout matches. Mbappe in all-world form (8 goals). Best odds available now vs. at kickoff tomorrow.

Risk: Spain are world-class in transition; a draw goes to extra time/penalties where any result is live.

Confidence: 7/10

Final Card

Today's Best Value Play: Junior Caminero +425 in the Home Run Derby. Highest confidence pick: France to advance to the World Cup Final at -140 — lock it in today before tomorrow's line moves.

Disclaimer: These are opinions only. Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly and only what you can afford to lose. Must be 21+ and in a legal betting state.