Best Bets for July 1, 2026
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Meta Description: Best bets for July 1, 2026 — MLB Over picks, AEW title action & John Deere Classic value. Today's top sports betting picks, odds, and analysis.
Introduction
Happy Canada Day and Happy First of July — the sports calendar is stacked today. We've got a full MLB slate highlighted by two interesting series closers, AEW's biggest Dynamite of the summer fires up tonight in San Diego, and the John Deere Classic field is finalizing ahead of Thursday's first round. Our analytics show Instagram readers are driving the most engagement on this blog, so we're keeping today's picks mobile-friendly, punchy, and built around value.
Let's get into it.
⚾ MLB — Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles
12:35 PM ET | Oriole Park at Camden Yards | Series Finale
Chicago (45-39) has been the hotter team this week, winning the first two games of this three-game set, while Baltimore (39-48) has dropped four straight. Noah Schultz (2-4, 5.82 ERA) gets the ball for the White Sox. Crucially, both teams have been Over machines all season:
- White Sox: Over is 49-33-2 (59%)
- Orioles: Over is 50-35-2 (59%)
The first two games of this very series went Over. The line is set at 10. The model backs Over in 52% of simulations.
Risk factor: Schultz has the ability to eat innings and keep things low-scoring. If he has an efficient start, the Under is in play.
⚾ MLB — New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
3:07 PM ET | Rogers Centre, Toronto | Canada Day Series Finale
This is a Canada Day special. Toronto opens near -102 to -105 on most books — essentially a pick'em — while the Mets are listed as -116 favorites. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 matchups between these clubs.
- Freddy Peralta (NYM): 5-6, 4.53 ERA — on the road
- Patrick Corbin (TOR): 2-4, 5.09 ERA — stronger at home
The value is clear: take the home team at almost even money. Yes, Toronto is 16-29 all-time on Canada Day — but the matchup and home-field edge override the holiday curse here.
Risk factor: Corbin's ERA is not inspiring. If Peralta is sharp, NYM could control this one.
🤼 AEW Dynamite: Summer Blockbuster — MJF (c) vs. Mark Briscoe (AEW World Championship)
8:00 PM ET | Viejas Arena, San Diego, CA | TBS
This is the biggest non-PPV wrestling match in months. Coming off AEW Forbidden Door, Andrade's betrayal of MJF set up Briscoe's title shot. These two are 1-1 in singles competition, with Briscoe's most recent win at AEW All Out in a brutal Tables N' Tacks match.
The booking logic heavily favors a title change: Briscoe won at Forbidden Door in the big cage match, narrative momentum is strongly in his favor, and AEW typically delivers feel-good moments at elevated non-PPV events.
Mark Briscoe opens -150 (BetOnline).
Risk factor: MJF is too valuable a heel to lose the title without a full program. If AEW is saving the Briscoe win for All In in August, MJF retains via interference tonight.
⛳ John Deere Classic — Denny McCarthy Top 20 Finish
Starts Thursday, July 2 | TPC Deere Run, Silvis, IL
Betting is live today. Ben Griffin (+1500) leads the board, with Chris Gotterup (+1600) and Jackson Koivun (+2000) behind him. One model is actually fading Griffin as the favorite despite his top-line price.
The sharp prop play: Denny McCarthy Top 20 at +200 (DraftKings). He's on a T11-T7-T6-T6 run at this exact event. Four consecutive strong finishes at TPC Deere Run is not a coincidence.
Dart of the day: Michael Thorbjornsen at +3200 — his best career finish came at this course (T-2), and ball-striking numbers are trending up.
Risk factor: TPC Deere Run can reward bombers in low-wind conditions. McCarthy and Thorbjornsen are not the longest hitters in the field.
Best Bets Summary
| Pick | Bet | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS vs. BAL Over 10 | Total Over | -115 (FanDuel) | 7/10 |
| Toronto Blue Jays ML | Moneyline | -102 to +105 | 6/10 |
| Mark Briscoe to win AEW Title | Moneyline | -150 (BetOnline) | 7/10 |
| Denny McCarthy Top 20 (JDC) | Tournament Prop | +200 (DraftKings) | 8/10 |
Final Card
Strongest play of the day: Denny McCarthy Top 20 at +200. Four-event track record at this course is hard to ignore, and the price is generous for a reliable contender in a weaker field.
Secondary plays: CWS-BAL Over 10 rides season-long trends from two of the most Over-friendly teams in baseball. Briscoe -150 is priced correctly given narrative momentum.
Lean/value watch: Toronto ML is a near pick'em with home-field advantage on Canada Day — small unit, high intrinsic value.
All odds as of Wednesday morning. Lines may move before first pitch. Bet responsibly. Gambling involves risk.
Sportsbooks referenced: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetOnline
